Moody’s warns: US recession probability rises to 48%, highest level since 2020.
Credit rating agency Moody’s has warned that the probability of a recession in the US has reached 48%, the highest level since 2020. This estimate comes amid a weak job market and a record -911,000 payroll revisions. The agency said the decline in employment data and signs of economic slowdown are worrying for the US economy. Historically, such large payroll revisions are considered a serious signal, potentially negatively impacting future growth.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said on Tuesday that the US economy could avoid recession if the wealthy continue spending at their current levels. Sharing the data on social platform X, he wrote, “The US economy is driven largely by spending by the wealthy. As long as they keep spending, the economy will remain safe from recession but if for any reason they reduce expenditure, a big problem will arise.”